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Energy Performance Contracting: A risk management decision model for the promotion of energy efficiency by using Monte Carlo simulation

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Many experts characterize the 21 century as an urban century. In light of the global population growth, that is expected to rise to more than 9 billion people in 2050, our planet faces huge challenges. A growing population will increase the global demand for energy. However, energy prices are expected to grow in the coming years. Hereby the awareness of global warming becomes more and more important, highlighting the relevance of investing in energy efficiency for the environment. However, many involved parties face an awareness, information and financial gap. Hence, business model innovation is required to overcome those problems. Transferring to an energy performance contracting business model can stimulate the promotion of energy efficiency. Changing attitude between customer and provider is important in the process of energy performance contracting. A risk management decision model has been developed in order to support the collaboration between customer and provider in the case of energy performance contracting. The model should fill in the awareness and information. The ‘Morris’ analysis is used to determine different scenario’s. Additionally, ‘Monte Carlo’ analysis is used for modeling the risks and benefits for each contract. The only viable route to achieve a sustainable and livable society is the swift and massive scaling up of clean technologies combined with a fundamental shift to sustainable production and consumption patterns.

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